“How things work” image of the human predicament

In this view of the predicament outcomes can be predicted by a causal model of reality. Causality exists when a change in a variable today causes a change in another variable which causes a change in a third variable which cascades to variables which describe future conditions. In causality variables have mass, and that means that when you see the crash moments before it happens it is too late to do anything about it. So you have to take behavior to prevent the crash before it begins to unfold.

In the case of the human predicament, I have created a model that suggests the crash is the collapse of civilization, a die off, and a dark age from which our children many not be able to recover.

The model can test the effect of changing one or more of the causalities. In this case, different "procreative behaviors" encourage or prevent crash. The difference between the two future images motivates different procreative behavior.

In the next two sections I will demonstrate the workings of my causal model and show why solutions, other than rapid population decline don't prevent civilization collapse.