TIME BLIND
The development of temporal thought
Processes that cause or prevent temporal blindness?
Jack Alpert Copy – for review only Alpert@skil.org © 2000 J. M. Alpert *

Introduction *

Time blindness—the two books *
Time Blindness—the social problem *
Time blindness—prevention *

Part I: Thinking about thinking *

Chapter 10. Thinking about changing thinking *
Chapter 11. Nurturing temporal thinking *

Part 2: Existing models and temporal thinking *

Chapter 12. Dynamic models & temporal thinking *
Chapter 13. Behavior models & temporal thinking *
Chapter 14. Learning models & temporal thinking *

Part 3: New temporal thinking/learning models *

Chapter 15. A temporal inference learning model *
Chapter 16. Temporal sight building *
Chapter 17. Temporal sight – what is enough? *
Epilogue — Action *

End Parts *

Acknowledgments *
Indexes *
Appendices *

Introduction

Time blindness—the two books

Before seat belts, drivers made their children sit close to them. That way, when they stepped on the brakes, they could hold them back and prevent them from flying into the dashboard. The behavior prevented a lot of chipped teeth and bloody noses. However, the "hold back" behavior was not perfect. If the car crashed in spite of heavy braking, the "hold back" behavior increased the child’s injuries! During the 50 years before seatbelts, hundreds of thousands of deaths, and millions of sever injuries, could have been avoided if drivers just kept their arms down.

From where did this imperfect behavior come? No one learned the "hold back" behavior from a driver training manual. No one learned it from applying physics. (If they did, rocket scientists would have chosen a different behavior from fruit pickers.) Instead everyone learned the same behavior from experiencing things sliding forward during abrupt stops. After a couple of spilled grocery bags, arms almost unconsciously pulled back on whatever is on the seat before braking. We, today are still learning the "hold back" behavior from these experiences. We are still putting out our arms during heavy braking. The increase in injuries is avoided only because our kids are wearing seatbelts. If they were not, our normal learning processes would still be adding to the highway death toll.

If you want to understand the physics that explains why holding back children increases their injuries, read the note at the end of this introduction. If you want to understand that learning process and its implications for human wellbeing, read this book. I describe how normal learning results in behavior that causes scarcity, social conflict, and environmental destruction, just as surely and unintentionally as holding back the unrestrained increases their injuries. I show how normal learning fails to accurately predict future conditions, weakens values for predicted conditions, and diminishes ability to connect predicted conditions to behaviors that cause them.

Some of these learning processes are acquired after birth. Each of us learned them from interactions with the environment. Part of this environment was produced by our culture. Therefore, part of six billion sets of imperfect behavior is the unintended by product of cultural activity.

These behaviors might be improved by changing what culture contributes, not to knowledge, but to cognitive development. Finding and implementing these changes might develop a new generation whose thinking and learning takes them to an environmentally balanced, abundant, and peaceful future.

The learning processes on which I focus contain a common thread "time." Our perception of time shapes both our predictions and the values we assign them. When a person fails to use available "temporal information" I call these distortions in prediction and value, "temporal blindness." When an entire society is time blind, and we try to fix social problems by changing the temporal cognitive abilities of all individuals in the next generation, I call the activity "cognition based solutions to global problems."

In the first book I describe the "time blind problem" for the lay reader. I show that our weak abilities to gather, process, and value information, distort our expectations. These distortions cause people to smoke, skid off roads, not wear seat belts, and contribute to global problems. The book's conclusion:

Unless the next generation thinks better than we do they will continue to create conditions of scarcity, violence, and environmental destruction for future generations. Each reader should finish this book convinced that if we raise the level of temporal cognition in most members of a future generation, they, through collective action, would be able to end these unwanted conditions.

The text is not designed to upgrade the reader’s temporal thinking abilities. The text is designed to get each reader to acknowledge: 1) their own thinking limitations; 2) the implications of these limitations in terms of their behavior’s impact on future conditions; and 3) the utility of creating new "thinking development environments" that prevent these limitations from being a part of a future generation’s cognitive tools.

In the second book I outline a solution to the time blind problem. I connect "behavior selection" to "thought processes," and "thought processes" to "learning environments." I show the ability, to predict and value outcomes of behavior partly results from nurture and partly from nature. Some of our global problems occur because "nurtured cognitive abilities" produce predictions or values that are too weak to compete with those produced by our animal nature. Or they are too weak to compete with the incorrect predictions, and shortsighted values we obtained through rote learning.

I show, using graphs of information flow, how existing development environments unintentionally induce temporal blindness. I hypothesize how alternative learning environments may prevent it. The conclusion:

We use experience, transmission, and inference thought processes to shape our behavior. Each process can be enhanced by developmental environments. Here is a framework of how we learn and use temporal inference. Use it as a basis to develop cognition based solutions to global problems.

Let me provide an overview of the problem outlined in the first text.

Time Blindness—the social problem

"Time Blindness" Topples Trade Towers

No one will receive additional goods, services, land, jobs, health, or freedom from a terrorist act. At best the act gets the attention of people whom the terrorist feels "have taken" these from his people. The important word is "taken." It is not being poor that motivates an individual to become a terrorist. It is the loss of wellbeing. For a dirt farmer, it is not the absence of a flush toilet or an electric light that promotes extreme action. It is the loss of land or water, and thus dignity. If this analysis is correct, to rid ourselves of terrorism we have to change the behaviors that cause "taking."

For most of us the world appears too complex or uncertain to connect our personal behaviors to the "taking from others." Even if we realize the underlying importance of "takings," in the creation of terrorism, we assume institutions do the taking. We fail to realize that "institutional taking" is driven by the taking behaviors of its constituents. We fail to realize that individuals, creating their families and lifting them to a better life, drive political or economic taking. Our benign personal behaviors are seldom seen as responsible for the "takings" that result in social conflict, or terrorism.

The connection between individual action and "takings" is easily seen in the case of our forefather settlers. Their benign acts (providing for their families) took enough from the existing tribes to provide today's Native Americans reason to be terrorists. Today, still performing the same "family providing behaviors" we are still taking from someone on the globe. These people or their children experience losses that could make them terrorists. The problem is that we often do not realize and cannot internalize the actual consequences of our behavior when those consequences are remote either in time or geography.

I call this failure to connect behavior and results accurately and to give adequate meaning to results at the time of choosing behavior "time blindness." Individuals’ time blindness has been creating terrorists from the beginning of civilization. It will continue making terrorists until people overcome time blindness. And therein lies the problem. Time blindness in not another word for selfishness or ethnocentrism. It is the result of the way we have been trained from birth to analyze and understand the consequences of actions.People who suffer from it cannot personally overcome it. However they can understand its meaning and structure, decide that life with terrorism is too big a price to pay, and work toward preventing that thinking limitation from becoming part of the next generation’s cognition.

In order to understand temporal blindness you must first understand what is meant by a thinking limitation. A thinking limitation can be described in the abstract, or though examples, such as a 15-year old’s decision to smoke, the ugliness of a simple social system, or the structure of our global community which has as a hidden integral part, the nurturing of terrorists.

What is a thinking limitation? A house cat sitting in your living room makes the same size image on your retina as a tiger at the end of a football field. A cognitive process converts one of the two images into a serious danger. If the process did not correctly use the "distance to the tiger" in calculating its size we could call ourselves "space blind." Time blindness is a similar limitation in cognitive process. It miss uses "time to event" in assigning the event’s meaning. As a result, a loss expected to happen next year looks smaller than that same loss happening next week. An expectation of your son being killed next year brings you less anxiety than an expectation of your son being killed next week?

Let me use a young person’s decision to smoke to demonstrate the immense bias created by "time blindness." Each smoked cigarette robs an individual of about 5 minutes of life (1)(2). On average, smokers die nearly seven years earlier than nonsmokers (3). As a result, each smoker loses three times the vacation in retirement than he or she has enjoyed during his or her entire working life. Furthermore smoking causes major capital losses that diminish retirement conditions. Taking grand kids on trips in a motor home and up to a cottage on the lake are prevented, because the pack a day smoker bought 18,000 packs of cigarettes at $3 a pack. Without investment, that’s $54,000 not available to purchase the motor home. With investment that’s $341,000 not available to purchase a cottage. If these losses were not enough, the smoker will also suffer the pain of coughing and shortness of breath. He or she will lose additional retirement vacation in medical treatment.

Which brings us to the crux of a young smoker’s choice "to smoke," — he or she makes the selection early in life. At age 15, retirement at age 65 is 50 years in the future. The above future liabilities, from here, look pretty small. The mental scales filled with "peer pressure to smoke" (translated heavy) on one side and "abstract future liabilities" (translated light) on the other, tip toward smoking.

In this case time blindness successfully inhibits the creation of a future image of oneself suffering. Time blindness inhibits the connect between the smoking behavior and the suffering condition Time blindness inhibits the transference between a parent suffering lung cancer and oneself suffering from lung cancer. Time blindness even discounts a transmission of the connection, for example the Surgeon General’s warning

Now let me turn to the role of time blindness in shaping an individual’s "taking behaviors." Visualize a large ship. The ship never makes port. Getting "on" the ship requires a birth. Getting "off" requires a death. Each couple has around two children. Some people do not have any. The ship’s population is constant.

The ship has limited space and materials. It has energy sources and technology that allows it to create shelter, food, water, healthcare, and recreation. Each person on the top deck gets a large portion of living space and ship’s services. Each person on progressively lower decks gets a smaller portion.

From any deck people can see a better life. There is a constant scramble by each person on the ship to improve his or her conditions on a deck or to move up a deck. The channels of success are achieved either by increasing productivity and efficiency or by redistributing existing resources through social structure, cunning, or violence.

Shipmates welcome increasing productivity and efficiency. However, during redistribution, one person’s success pushes another to a smaller space or to a lower deck. Some people get pushed so low they have too little food and die from starvation. Some die from lack of healthcare. Some die from physical hardship of hard work. Some die in the conflicts that arise from violent acts of redistribution.

Each day just before sundown everyone gathers at the back of the ship for sea burial of the dead. All those who died from old age or natural accident are buried off the sunny side. All those, whose lives were cut short by starvation, inadequate healthcare, hardship, or violence, are buried off the shady side.

If this society wanted to assign responsibility for shady side burials, it might consider the following paragraphs, which describe the consequences of various behaviors.

Which behavior caused the death of a child if the parents had the flow of resources to feed the child when they conceived it, however, after living conditions changed aboard ship they did not? In this case, the child’s death can be attributed to an individual whose behavior consumed additional resources, which were not offset by an increase in productivity. That is, if the individual did not consume these additional resources (and the starving child did) death would have been prevented.

When a person kills or is killed in fights to regain lost resources, people who increased their consumption and first took these resources share responsibility. For if they did not take the resources in the first place there would have been no need to take them back.

If a ship has too few resources to support all its passengers, even no change in distribution produces shady side burials. Anyone who consumes anything helps account for the shady side burials already in place. That is, if any individual ceased to exist, the resources that supported him or her could be used to keep others from shady side burials. Thus, every individual shares some responsibility.

This responsibility might be calculated by taking the total number of shady side deaths viewed during a lifetime and dividing that number by the number of passengers. For example, if half the people were going over the shady side, then each person would be responsible for half a person shady side burial. Every pair of consumers, on average, would be responsible for one shady side death.

Let me propose a behavior that will stop all hardship and conflict due to resource limitations. While it will not sound humane, it will be enlightening. Assume that society commanded each pair of consumers to shoot someone. The released resources would prevent shady side burials that were caused by starvation, lack of medical attention, physical hardship, or social conflict induced by scarcity.

This new social design will produce the same number of shady side burials. The shooting acts would produce the same number as the consumptive acts of the non-shooting system. The only difference between the two social systems is the people in the shooting system can see the connection between behavior and result and in the people in the consumptive system can not.

Because the relationships among the ship's resources and population are simple, they allow one more hypothetical extension. If one individual lowered his or her consumption to alleviate starvation and someone else besides the starving party consumed these relinquished resources, then, responsibility for the starving person’s early death would then be transferred from one consumer to another. The mobility of responsibility suggests that each individual on the ship is not equally responsible for the downward push of people to a lower deck or off the shady side in a burial. Those with larger consumption must take a larger portion of responsibility.

If we allocate responsibility as a function of consumption, the pairs who consume 100 times those that are shooting just one person would have to shoot 100 people. Pairs that consume 100th as much, shoot only one person to fulfill the responsibilities of 100 pairs. If everyone followed this proportional proposal the shady side burial number would be the same.

What does it imply when the shooting behavior and the consumptive behavior have vastly different acceptance among the ship’s company but create the identical results? It may mean each individual’s thinking process can make the connection between the shooting behavior and death but not the connection between the consumptive behavior and death. The difference between the two "behavior/consequence combinations" is the time delay between action and outcome. It may mean, time blindness makes a death due to consumption mean very little in selecting the behaviors that cause it.

Now let me move on to the meaning of our temporal blindness to our social condition. The earth, being physically and socially more complex, has many additional ways to produce shady side deaths. On earth poor people have children they know they can not support. Power hungry leaders cause violence for their own self-aggrandizement. Benevolent parents have as many children as they can support. These behaviors, not present on the ship, on earth cause additional shady side deaths.

However, there is no reason to assign all shady side deaths to these "additional" bad behaviors. If you are not a person who had children you could not support, an evil leader, or the parent of three or more children, do you want to know how many people you kill through your consumptive behavior? Would you like to consider the number you would have to shoot if our global society chose the "proportion to consumption shooting protocol" as a means for eliminating the deaths due directly to scarcity and conflict that arises from scarcity?

My analysis uses two numbers, 75 (the average age at death in developed countries) and 62 (the average age at death in undeveloped counties.) The age difference is 13 years.

The relationships connecting consumption and longevity of these individuals are complex. However, if I assume that there exists a reduction in consumption of a person from a developed country (not large enough to affect a change in his or her longevity), that will release enough resources to help four people in undeveloped countries increase their longevity to 75 years, then, each individual in a developed country, in choosing to maintain his or her consumptive pattern **, takes 13 years from each of four people in an undeveloped country.

Four times 13 is 52 years or 70% of a 75-year life span. Thus, living a developed world life style on average means shortening another human being's life by 70%. Each of us, by living in the developed world, is doing the same harm to our fellow humans, as if we shot someone who was 23 years old to prevent him or her from consuming resources the rest of his potential life. It is like killing 0.7 people.

This analysis overestimates and under-estimates the number. For example it increases the number because it does not adjust for the deaths of children of irresponsible parents. It does not adjust for the deaths due to irresponsible leaders or deaths due to people who have three or more kids. It increases the responsibility of a rich person and decreases the responsibility of a poor person by assigning all of the "shady side" deaths to the top 20% of the consumers even though they account for only 80% of the consumption. The calculations also overestimate an individual’s responsibility because they do not adjust for the deaths caused by our predecessors’ behaviors.

However, the largest error in estimation of an individual's responsibility caused by this computation, an underestimation that may more than compensate for its over-estimation, may be that it does not adjust for the future deaths that result from today’s behavior. Thus the .7 number is probably a conservative estimate of the responsibility of an average person living in the developed world.

If this number does not seem significant in the selection of a terrorist target, consider that this average does not take into account that among the top 20% of the world’s consumers, consumption can vary by more than a hundred fold. Some of us are responsible for killing one and two people every year just by living our normal life style. If a shooting protocol was implemented, that is how many we’d have to shoot.

With our time blindness, most of us did not see our consumptive behavior as this deadly. We did not have to accept responsibility for "shady side burials. We could think that our individual and institutional behaviors that increased production through technology or created safety nets that redistribute goods and services to the weakest group members, were adequate to compensate any people we might have inadvertently pushed aside in our trip to our current well being. But the above description shatters this view. It shows that these behaviors, even when successful, only momentarily stop "shady side burials." Increasing consumption by all individuals from all decks undoes any success.

If we had temporal sight we would see, that in the long term, stopping shady side deaths will require different personal behaviors of all shipmates. To prevent "taking" would require a birthrate that lowers the ship’s population enough to compensate for any expanded consumption of the remaining population (that is expanded consumption not addressed by advances in technology).

However, we are time blind. "Population reduction behaviors" that reduce shady side deaths remain as invisible to us as past consumptive behaviors that contributed to them. Most of us do not see the earth as a large ship. Most of us don't keep track of the difference between a sunny and shady side burial. The harshness of other people's lives in the future does not influence our behavior.

Even those that have a vision of the "taking" problem and are motivated to search for a solution will not immediately find the "population reduction" solution. Even if they did, lowering the birthrate could only be implemented by actions of six billion individuals whose temporal sight causes them all to choose a one child per family behavior.

With our time blindness, we, the six billion people of our earth do not have the abstract cognitive abilities to see our procreative acts as causes of, or potential cures for, the hardship realized by 80% of the earth’s future inhabitants. We do not have the temporal sight to give much value to those future injuries. When we balance the expected benefits that accrue to us as parents of a second child, against the "invisible" or "under valued injuries" that accrue to others, possibly our grandchildren, the scale tips in favor of having the second child every time.

With our time blindness we fail to see that our children will live in a world with even greater pressures pushing them to lower decks. We cannot see that these pressures will increase generation by generation. We fail to see that each generation of children will have to be launched to higher levels than were their parents. Each future generation will have to be brighter than their parents just to live on the same deck. And shamefully, each generation will have to be more ruthless and more indifferent in dealings with their less fortunate earthmates.

Six billion people promote global problems because their abilities to see and value future conditions created by present behavior (to perform temporal inference) are no stronger than those of a 15-year-old potential smoker. If the temporal inference thinking capacities of a future generation could be free of these limitations, then, it would be possible for that generation to see and feel in their gut the future their actions promote. It would be possible for that generation to choose behaviors that we can not choose. It would be possible for that generation to create a world we want but cannot produce.

To overcome time blindness, our challenge is to create a generation that has temporal sight. The challenge is to describe the temporal inference thinking processes that allow behavior to reflect its future outcomes. The challenge is to create the learning environments that develop these thinking processes.

This solution will require an enormous research and development effort. It will be attempted if the losses caused by temporal blindness look equally enormous; that is enormous to people who live today; that is enormous to people who are as time blind as you and me.

The terrorism we now face may be this motivation. Bin Laden may be a deranged diabolical power hungry maniac that should be in a mental institution. However, the people that trained in his camps can not all be that crazy. Many are men who see themselves as victims (and children of victims) no different from Native Americans. Their people had land and resources that were taken away. Some see the supports of their present life still being taken away. As long as our global society creates these men we will have terrorism.

Terrorism may motivate this enormous effort because it shatters the myth that the twenty-first century is a time of wealth, health, and longevity; a time when the smartest will live like kings supported by a peaceful population of 6 billion paid servants. Terrorism speaks for the 40,000 children who die each day die from starvation or its related diseases. Terrorism speaks for those whose average age is 13 years shorter than it could be. It speaks for the people who see themselves losing their wellbeing and dignity.

As these numbers grow, terrorism will grow until it wakes us up and we implement what we thought we could not do — create a community of individuals who allow the future to influence their behaviors.

-----------

1) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Office on Smoking and Health, unpublished data, 1994 http://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/mortali.htm

2) Every year in the United States, premature deaths from smoking rob more than five million years from the potential life span of those who have died. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Smoking-attributable morality and years of potential life lost--United States, 1990. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 1993; 42(33): 645-8. http://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/mortali.htm

3) Smokers in the US consume 500 billion cigarettes a year -- USDA 1993 http://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/mortali.htm.

(physics of injury" note)

During a 30-MPH crash both the car and the child must abruptly stop moving. The stop is like landing on the pavement after jumping off a 3rd story balcony. If any of the parents had a choice between landing on a thick cushion or a thin one, they would all pick the thick one. However, the "pull back behavior" is like picking the thin one. "Not holding back" is like picking the thick one.

In such a crash, the car’s front-end crushes 15-inches. This crush acts like a 15 inch cushion for the dashboard and everything that slows down with it. If the child is against the dashboard at the instant of crash, he or she slows down in 15 inches. The dashboard applies a 500-pound force to the child’s body. It seems large. However it causes no severe injury. Seat belts prevent injury because they act like the dashboard. They apply the 500 pound force for the 15-inch stopping distance.

No parent however, can create 500 pounds of restrain with one arm outstretched to the right. The child’s body overpowers the arm and continues moving forward at 30 MPH. Unfortunately, by the time the child moves from the seat to the dash, the dash has already moved 15 inches and has already slowed to zero MPH. When the child collides with it, he or she slows to zero MPH in the 1 inch or so the dash deforms. What could have been a 15-inch cushion is now little more than a one inch cushion. The forces on the child are ten times higher and so are the injuries.

---> This analysis is confirmed by crash data of unbelted car occupants. Sleeping passengers, drunks, and un restrained children, that slid forward during braking, and were "on-the-dashboard" at the time of collision, walk away from accidents only slightly injured. Passengers that hold themselves, or are held like children, away from the dashboard during braking, and then collide with it during collision, get seriously injured or killed.

Time blindness—prevention

"knowledge"À what you know

"thinking" À the processes you used to acquire what you know

What you learn in this book will depend on how well you keep the two concepts separated.

The first book in this series may have convinced some readers that our thinking is limited in choosing behavior in temporal situations like driving cars and wearing seat belts. However, knowledge of "limitations in thinking" will not change these readers’ behavior. Most will still put their arms out to restrain their seat belted children before a crash.

The book may have created a understandable argument that to create an abundant, peaceful and non polluted world for our great grand children we would need to limit each family to one child. Yet few if any of these readers will implement the logic.

When the time comes to have the second child, each will revert back to an irrational belief that "if everyone limited themselves to just two children, humankind would have a great solution to present global problems."

Why this regression. Why will the reader not change his or her personal procreative behavior or change his or her advocacy. I suggest that "knowledge of" is not the same as "meaning for" future events.

Meaning depends on, not only creating a view of the future, but also creating a belief that the view will happen and feelings that would be had by the individuals who would exist during the expected conditions. These latter two parts require the conversion of "knowledge of" into the stuff that shapes behavior. And this too is a part of the temporal inference skills for which we search and hope be able to develop in some future generation.

Thus the contents of the first book is but a description of the problem. It is in the following book that I describe thinking, and learning-to-think, in a way that helps the reader find a course of action that does not require changing his or her own procreative behavior. It does not require the reader to change his or her values about procreation. The course of action is to:

create a cognitive development environment for infants that creates temporal sight.

The course of action is to create a new generation that can:

****** edit from here on ****

The constructions in the following book help in the research and development of new learning environments. When a reader is not him or herself such a researcher, the intent is to encourage the science reader to help facilitate this projects. Together, the advocate and the researcher, can create a cognitive development environment, which will create a world full of temporally sighted individuals.

In the chapters I explain:

I do this by building and presenting an expanded model of learning and thinking.

Success depends on overcoming two challenges.

The limitations of our language and our senses are overcome though the use of abstraction.

Language in perspective

Consider: Inuit languages have dozens of words for frozen water. Each word conveys information about which mittens to wear, which sled to take, and the time of day to start a trip to get the best travel conditions. English words for frozen water, for example, "snow, sleet, and hail" don’t begin to convey enough utilitarian meanings.

The reader is about to embark on an adventure to discover missing workings of his or her own thinking. The workings are temporal. Like the failures of English words to describe frozen water, English words also fail to describe the implications of objects "in change" or "in motion." Motions of moving objects which appear stationary to the eye are not easily conveyed by the terms "slow," or "sluggish." These terms do not help us in choosing controlling behaviors any more than the word snow helps Inuits plan trips.

As the reader works to understand how the human mind could "learn-to-connect" the almost invisible societal motions toward tragedy to the seemly harmless personal behaviors that bring them into existence, he or she will have to allow abstraction to do the job of creating the gut feelings of danger. Like those we all get when we look over the roof edge of a tall building. The reader will have to get the "willies" from looking at a signal flow graph when it predicts harm.

The graph themselves are presented only as hypotheses to be tested. There will be no laboratory evidence presented to support their accuracy. However, the abstractions have a special power. They describe in symbols, concepts we can not directly grasp with our senses.

Abstraction as arguement

A man has jumped off the roof of a 100-story skyscraper, and as he falls past the 10th floor some one yells out through a window, "How are you doing?" The falling man yells back. "Just fine, I have fallen 90 stories and nothing bad has happened yet!"

Isacc Asimov

in trying to explain the temporal outlook of Americans!

Like Asimov’s jumper, the reader sees or feels only a portion of the temporal world in which he or she is immersed. Our physiology, optimized over millions of years by natural selection, pays close attention to some temporal aspects of the environment and is indifferent to others.

To learn about the missing portion is a challenge. The effort is similar to that of a colorblind person learning that "objects that appear in his or her mind’s eye as identical grays are very different colors of a rainbow." Special types of examples must be used. Because the color blind person can not directly sense different colors, an understanding that they are different must be derived using abstractions.

For example, the locations of the two identical gray bands in a black and white picture of a rainbow formed by a prism can be used to determine that the two bands are different colors, Figure P-10.

Figure P-10 abstractions to overcome limitations in senses

Given that a prism separates white light, light containing all wavelengths of light, into a fan with:

Thus if two non-contiguous bands appear the same shade of gray they can not be the same wavelength. One is longer than the other and thus is a different color.

As I used the prism to show a "color-blind man" that two things that appear the same are different, in this text I use signal flow graphs to present to the reader temporal aspects of the environment that remain equally hidden by physiological limitations. The models are temporal analogs to prisms. They describe our temporal blindness, and developmental activities that may prevent it in future generations.

 

Part I: Thinking about thinking

 

 

 

Wouldn’t it be nice if we were all like Merlin, King Arthur’s advisor.

He could see the future with the same clarity as the past.

Chapter 10. Thinking about changing thinking

When we begin to think about changing thinking. We must answer questions like:

To answer these questions, we must take the thinking that we use everyday; the thinking we use almost unconsciously, and explicitly describe:

10.1. Hidden parts of our thinking

In the southwestern Indian states of Maharasjtra and Karnataka, believers in the Hinduist Deveadasi System, who today number in the hundreds of thousands have been dedicating their daughters to a religiously sanctioned life of prostitution for well over a millennium.

(World Watch Vol. 7 N.4 July Aug. 1994)

The Deveadasi act as they do because some of the liabilities, attributable to their actions remain invisible. Their thinking is not equipped to perform the investigation that would make them visible.

Consider the possibility, that while you may not be forcing your daughters into prostitution, you may be (unknowingly, through your temporal blindness) performing some equally unpleasant behavior. Consider the possibility that your approved behaviors, result in liabilities that remain invisible (or if visible undervalued). Consider the possibility that you, like the Deveadasi, are ill equipped to answer the following questions,

"What is inconsistent or inhumane about my behavior?"

"What is less than it could be with the way I gather, manipulate, and value information?"

After the briefest consideration, most of us will conclude that:

Since we have discovered in Time Blind -the problem that our thinking leads to behaviors that result in conditions we do not want, we are now faced with a challenge to improve our thinking. The first step is to make the invisible visible.

To begin this task, let me compare the invisible parts of our thinking with the invisible parts of our speech. When we realize that thinking is shaped by accents just as our speech is shaped by accents it provides a stepping stone to this understanding.

Consider we can't hear our own speech accent. We probably didn't know what a speech accent was until we heard a person outside of our region speak. Even then we did not assume that we had one. All we knew was that "they" had one.

Once we believe that we have a speech accent, we realize we have no idea how we got it. We don't remember learning our Texas drawl. We don't remember having anyone teach us to roll our R's.

Further, the drawl or the rolled R's remain such an invisible part of our uttered sounds, if we learn to speak French, we unconsciously include the drawl or the rolled R's in speaking the French language.

Our "thinking accent" is much like our speech accent. We do not know if we have a way of gathering and using information, which is different than other people. We do not know if we could have a different way of gathering and using information than we have.

We did not realize that we learned our thinking indirectly. Our thinking accent was given to us, by parents, peers, and teachers. These people didn't know it was part of their agenda to give us a thinking accent. Actually they had the agenda of giving us some knowledge and love and the thinking accent was just thrown in unconsciously by them and subconsciously absorbed by us.

While differences in speech accents merely denote different regional origins, differences in thinking accents shape our behaviors. It determines which information gets sensed, manipulated and valued. It determines what additional knowledge can be constructed from information in memory. And finally, it determines which behaviors our brain can create, compare, and value.

A person who speaks Australian English opens a window by which Americans can perceive that each of us might have a speech accent of our own. Consider the case where all human beings on the globe have the same speech accent. Then, this avenue of discovery would not be available. We would be blind to our accent.

It follows that if we all had the same thinking accent, then a deficiency in our information gathering and using would be a perfect blind spot. We, nor our peers, nor our leaders, nor our teachers could directly perceive it.

However, thinking accents do change over time. We can use history to demonstrate differences in thinking accents and thus provide a window by which we can suggest to ourselves the existence (if not the form) of our own present day thinking accent.

Begin by investigating the behaviors of an individual who existed several 100 years ago and who in that time period was assumed to "Think very well." Then assess his or her use of information and a behavior using today’s thinking accent. If this great figure of history appears incompetent or immoral to us, there are grounds to believe that we will look equally incompetent and immoral to those in the future whose thinking accents have advanced beyond ours.

For example, an investigation of Thomas Jefferson illuminates a man with both extraordinary thinking capabilities and a thinking accent that includes a blind spot. Jefferson could see the injustice of the rule of the English monarchs, which raised them above the men of common standing. Jefferson wrote the constitution of the United States to eliminate these unjust privileges. He did this when most of his countrymen were still paying allegiance to royalty. However, as bright and as free thinking as Jefferson was, his constitution did not extend equal standing to women or slaves.

If Jefferson could treat a man as a horse simply because the fellow had been sold as a horse or diminish the privilege of a woman because of her sex, then it is possible for an individual, to have cognitive limitations superimposed on otherwise exceptional thinking powers.

With this observation it is possible for those living today to postulate the existence of their own thinking accent. It follows that in our state of partial perception; we could be taking actions, which are equally heinous.

For example, our thinking accents could be allowing us to degrade the lives of future individuals just as Jefferson degraded the lives of slaves and women.

If we accept this hypothesis, we can try and outline the temporal aspects of our thinking accent, how we learned our thinking accents and how we might have learned different thinking accents.

For example, Jefferson's thinking accent is different from ours in that he could touch the flesh he abused. We can not touch those we abuse because they exist only in the future. His thinking blindness had to do with allowing the difference in color and sex to justify differences in his behavior. Our thinking blindness has to do with allowing differences in time or space to justify differences in our behavior. That is, a behavior is prohibited if it kills a person who is standing in front of you, and allowed if it kills a person a distance away or in the future.

With our present thinking accent (way of processing information) we conclude that we can have as many children as we can properly nurture. The immoral people are those who have children they can not properly nurture.

This thinking accent is blind-sided because it does not utilize available information, which shows that each additional child (in support of his or her existence), does enormous harm to future individuals. Thus, with this blind-sided accent, six billion decision-making parents are contributing to crimes no less heinous than are those of owning slaves or adopting constitutions that deny equal rights to women.

Like our nation’s founding father, it is our thinking accent that prevents our comprehension of our crime. Our thinking accent fails to appreciate information which connects "having as many people living at one time as we feel a need to father or mother" and "the harm these people create for future generations because of their existence." Our thinking accent hides the future harm of present action and makes the immediate results pristine and beautiful.

In this book I have hypothesized that to prevent an inhumane future requires a decreasing global population rather than a stable or increasing population. To obtain this decreasing trend, each parent would have to limit him or herself to fathering or mothering only one child.

Like Jefferson, who sometimes argued that giving up slaves was like giving up economic well being to gain nothing, most parents would say this giving up a second child is like giving up parenting benefits to gain nothing. However, I suggest, the parent’s reasons for outrage is the result of a thinking accent different but no less blinding than Jefferson's.

While Jefferson's thinking accent, allowed him to disregard information that suggested blacks and women were fit to be free and vote, our thinking accent allows us to disregard predictions of future environment troubles and social injustice. It is thinking, shaped by this accent that approves two child families.

It is clear we need different thinking accents. Accents that would implement trends away from war, famine, and pollution. However, for the same reason it is almost impossible to change the speech accent learned first, it may be almost impossible to change the thinking accent learned first.

It may appear this leaves us without a solution until we consider what a trivial task it was for the child to obtain his or her first speech accent. Possibly, for a child, developing his or her first thinking accent is an equally simple task. The "ease of learning" is facilitated because it is one he or she learns first. This is the solution that I proposed in the book.

In the remaining chapters, I describe the process that developed or nurtured our thinking accent. I focus on the learning activities that shaped our temporal cognition. Then I propose changes to these activities that will create new individuals whose thinking accents do not discount the future liabilities of their present actions.

10.2. Our absence of cognitive development

When an individual fails to develop cognitive skills that others have, differences in capacity are visible. Experiments can measure the difference. Other experiments may show why one group obtained the skills while other did not.

However, when no one develops a cognitive ability, there is no measurable difference. There are no experiments to perform to show how a cognitive ability is developed. Explanations for an absence of skill are at best hypothetical. In this vacuum, two pieces of research may show why some parts of temporal cognitive development remain absent.

The first suggests that humans are born with latent capacities, or latent components of those capacities. Thought interactions with the environment some are activated, and integrated into cognitive abilities. Without these interactions they remain dormant.

The second piece of research suggests there is a window of opportunity in early infancy where these latencies can be easily accessed. Over time this window partially closes and further activation and integration becomes more difficult.

10.2.1. A language model of cognitive development

***Need the original source reference- Janet Werker Vancouver infant studies

It has been shown that the human mouth and vocal cords can make over 100 different sounds. These are called phonemes. Infant research has shown that very young infants, those less than 4 months old, pay equal attention to all 100 sounds. That is, if the parent utters one of the hundred sounds the child will attend to it equally with any of the others.

However, after the child is six months old, he or she attends equally only to the small fraction of the phonemes that are part of the adult communication he or she hears.

For example, if the parent is communicating in English, the 26 phonemes used in English are those the infant has learned to attended to. The remaining 74 are given lessor attention. They are heard just as a door slamming is heard. However, like the door slamming sounds, are not considered speech, the 74

unused phonemes are not considered speech. For example, if I click my lips, you can hear it however, you can not make it part of a word in a sentence. Yet in other languages that click is a part of a word.

Consider the possibility that:

If:

we were born with 100 temporal building blocks with which to construct temporal cognitive abilities.

and

some of these building blocks, because of interactions with the environment are integrated into cognitive abilities.

and

some of these building blocks, because of the temporal impoverishment of the early learning environments, remain not integrated.

Then:

our job, the development of temporal sight, would be defined as:

10.2.2. Roger Sperry’s model of cognitive development

***(NR needs original reference)

Roger Sperry’s experiments at Cal Tech in the 50’s were designed to describe when an infant cat developed its cognition of images. Sperry learned that when kittens first opened their eyes, the eye neurons sense the objects in their field of view correctly. However, the brain could not convert the sense information into meaningful objects. The brain processing that converts senses to objects, the "wiring up" of the cortical neurons, took several days to develop.

He also asked the question, does this cortical wiring process occur throughout the cat’s life or does it happen mostly during this brief development period.

Sperry designed an experiment to test this idea. He presented the infant cat special pictures of objects. These pictures were created so that the object in the picture was constructed with, let's say, only vertical lines. There were no horizontal line segments. The subject cat developed its cortical brain wiring using information the eye neurons transmitted.

Later Sperry presented the same cat a second picture of the same object; however, this picture was constructed with only horizontal lines. The cat could not recognize what should have been a familiar object.

Sperry’s work suggests that the visual cortex proceeds through development using available information during a developmental period. If certain information is not in the cat’s field of view (horizontal lines are omitted) at the time when that part of the brain is developed, there is a chance that, that kind of information would remain unrecognized, even if it was sensed after the developmental period.

The temporal learning model in this text hypothesizes that human brains may also be "temporally" wired up during a development period at infancy. Further, that our learning environments lacked the stimulation, which may have developed our more, advanced temporal skills.

If our brains developed in a temporally impoverished environment, we, like Sperry’s vertical line cats, might be destine to proceed through life with only a subset of our potential temporal cognitive capabilities?

If:

we can identify temporal information missing from our early learning environments

and

introduce that information into the environment at the time an infant brain is developing,

Then:

the infant’s brain may develop a temporal cognition you and I don’t have. That infant’s brain might be temporally sighted for the same reasons a normal cat can see lines in all directions.

It follows that for my temporal learning model to help achieve temporal sight, it must be able to suggest additions to the environment experienced by the infant during brain development.

10.3. Changing thinking vs. changing behavior

Learning to behave better in temporal systems is not the same as

learning to "think" better in temporal systems.

To some color bind people, the red and gold traffic lights appear the same shade of gray. Red and gold look the same because the eye senses both colors using one group of eye neurons instead of two. Or because the output of two different groups of eye neurons are sent to one set of neurons in the brain instead of two. In either case the individual can not undo the errors in wiring.

This does not completely preclude learning to drive safely. For example, colorblind people can learn to infer a light’s meaning from the:

Consider the learning that can take place at an intersection where there is a single flashing light, not in a geometric group of three lights. Assume the driver has no previous experience with, or knowledge of this intersection.

While the colorblind person can not tell if the single light is flashing red or gold, he or she can learn the traffic light’s inference by gathering the movements of other drivers at the intersection. This however only works if there are other drivers present.

Even if there are other drivers present, there is no way for the colorblind person to know if the other drivers are

The correct behavior, at a particular single light intersection, can also be acquired if taught by an advisor. However, this learned behavior too can be incorrect. The teacher could be colorblind. The information he or she transmitted could be a repetition of incorrect information the teacher learned from their teacher.

If the student, the teacher and the teacher’s teacher are all colorblind, and all learned a behavior for the intersection from advise, it is impossible for any of them to know, if:

After we understand that the colorblind student is at the mercy of his teachers, and the idiosyncrasies of his learning environment, we, the temporally blind, might postulate:

the behaviors we learned, to operate in temporal systems are the result of exposure to the same limitations in advise, and environment.

since we can not change our temporal wiring, we can not fully grasp our cognitive limitations or that our behaviors are not those we might otherwise choose if the limitations in wiring were not present.

What does it mean if we know:

It means that:

1) Many experiences of skidding on snowy roads fail to teach how to handle skids on dry pavement.

2) A failure to control a skid on dry pavement (an accident) fails to illuminate the general learning limitation in cognitive skills in the temporal domain.

3) Even when an unpleasant future is correctly predicted and correctly connected to its causing behavior and it is successfully transmitted to us, the temporal aspects of our value structure makes the prediction lack influence. What we learned doe not provide the same influence on our behavior as if the liability happened immediately.

Temporally blind people can be coerced, physically or socially, to perform a behavior that appears second best. However, the goal is to get the best appearing behavior be the one arrive at through temporal sight rather than the one arrived at through temporal blindness.

The book will help the reader recognize the tragedy of being temporally blind. It will help the reader appreciate the need for our society to be made of individuals who have temporal sight. And it should help the reader understand some of the mechanics that could promote the development of temporal sight in future minds.

10.4. Changing the information used in thinking

A man who learns from experience is smart.

A man who learns from another’s experience is a genius.

What do we call the man who learns when there is no experience?

According to the above adage, one difference between a smart person and a genius, is the genius uses more sources of available information. He or she can gather, manipulate and give meaning to a larger variety of information.

Cognitive development can be thought of as a continuum where a person begins with just a few skills to gather, manipulate and give meaning to information and expands these skills. For example, just basic skills are needed to convert physical objects into mental abstractions. Additional skills are required to covering physical symbols of objects into mental abstractions. And a few more skills are required to transform mental images into new images that have never existed as physical objects or symbols.

Advancing one’s cognitive development:

From:

capturing the physical domain

To:

capturing the physical domain and capturing the physical symbols in the domain,

Is probably no more complicated than advancing cognitive development:

From:

physical and symbolic capture

To:

physical symbolic, and imagined capture.

However, teaching as we know it can’t explicitly describe what parents, peers, and teachers did to help a child make the first transition.

The student’s change, in how he or she gathers, processes, and gives meaning to information, is an unconscious by-product of the living experience.

I hypothesize that we are temporally blind because the experiences that would have advanced us to the temporal inference level of cognitive development, or temporal sight, are either absent from our natural living experience or are present but are ignored by our minds after they proceeded through previous learning.

A goal of creating a model that describes a process for the development of temporal sight, is to make explicit the process of cognitive development (meta learning) that is being completed implicitly in the first transition and to extend it to implement the second.

10.5. Making "learning to learn" explicit

Learning to: behave

Learning to: learn to behave

Learning to: learn to learn to behave

.

.

.

When a condition in the world, depends on the existence of a preceding condition, which itself depends on the existence of preceding condition, ... we have a causal chain where a change in any preceding condition changes all the conditions that follow it.

This book is such a study. That is, I focus on,

problems that cause us to feel bad, …then on the

behavior that caused the problems; …then on the

thinking that caused the behavior; …then on the

learning that caused the thinking; …then on the

environments that caused the learning; …then on the

components that caused the environments ...

When we see that the environment’s components are more layers of problems caused by behaviors, caused by thinking, caused by learning, caused by environment, etc. we see that our discussion will span many connected levels.

The words below appear in discussions of many of these levels.

Variable ==>> a descriptor of a system that can assume different values

condition ==>> the instantaneous value of one or more variable that describe a state of a system

relation ==>> two connected conditions

      1. a function
      2. a sequence of images
      3. a logical declaration
      4. (the derivative of a relation is a mechanism)

mechanism ==>> a device that can:

      1. transform one condition into another and
      2. produce relations where the second
      3. condition is a function of the first
      4. (the derivative of a mechanism is a function)

system,

pathway,

or process ==>> connected mechanisms that produce

image ==>> a mind's instantaneous view of the

(Note: dog-ear this page so you can reference it)

At all the levels, a word’s definition is held constant. However, the words are used to describe," learning," which is not the same at each level. For example,

.

.

.

If you can keep track of:

you are ready to think about the nurturing of temporal sight.

Chapter 11. Nurturing temporal thinking

My objective is to build a model that describes learning.

On one hand Ë I want it to describe the

On the other handË I want the model to describe the content, process, and process acquisition they could have learned but didn’t.

Even without the complications of the many interdependent learning levels previously described, building this model is a giant step beyond what we commonly think of as a learning model. Consider just two aspects:

1) familiar learning models focus on descriptions of how individuals without ability gain the abilities of individuals with abilities.

2) familiar learning models seldom describe the learning to learn processes that facilitate each learning task.

To know how to change our familiar nurturing environment so it produces temporal sight, we must create a model of learning unlike any we have used in the past. It must describe:

The model must describe why our familiar environments produce temporally impoverished maturation. Finally, the model must be compelling to individuals who themselves are without temporal sight.

11.1. Special goals special models

For the model to accomplish these goals, it must be of a type most often reserved for mechanical engineering design. This type of model goes by the names "causal," "finite element" or "process model." Engineers use it to design a bridge that must go beyond the limits of previous bridges.

This engineer’s process model has two important properties:

1) the model connects all the bridge’s parts together so that each part:

2) The connected parts can be loaded with

The model predicts if each part will fail or carry the load applied to it. If any part in the model of the bridge fails, the model describes how the load is then redistributed among the remaining parts; one of which may then exceed its limit and fail. The process continues until the "model bridge" remains standing or comes crashing down. The model, not trial and error "building-bridges," predicts if the bridge will provide safe transport or fall down.

If :

we could build a "process model" for thinking and learning,

Then:

We could predict if an environment would produce, or fail to produce, learning and or learning that has never previously existed.

Content and process, never previously learned by anyone, can be described in terms of flows of information transformed by a pathway of mechanisms.

Building a process model of thinking and learning requires finding the analogous components and connections to those used in the process model of bridge building.

To accomplish this task we must:

11.2. Mechanisms vs. rules as basis for models

*** figure needed Rube Goldberg cartoon xxx* a figure of a contraption where the cat is awakened form sleep if the cheese is moved by an intruding mouse.

What is the difference between the learning models "we have" and the learning model "we want?" The temporal learning model we seek must be like the Rube Goldberg contraption in that it should allow us to visualize how changes in a person’s learning environment (beginning at infancy) develop a temporally sighted, rather than a temporally blind, adult.

The unique feature of a Rube Goldberg contraption is that it makes predictions of conditions that have not yet occurred. The model shows that if the cheese is moved, physical objects move and trip one another in series so that the cat is awaked. That is a change at the beginning of a system eventually results in a desired change at the end.

The cat awakening prediction is facilitated by the structure, which is a chain of mechanisms. Each mechanism has an input and an output. The output of each mechanism causes the next mechanism to produce an output until finally the last mechanism produces an output that wakens the cat.

Rube Goldberg became famous and well liked because he made us see that the cat would be wakened without ever having the cheese moved. All the viewer had to do was mentally move the cheese and then mentally trip the movements of each successive mechanism.

While we could all do this visualization with the help of his great graphics, most of us can not see our lives with such mechanistic clarity. For example, the springs and gears of a watch completely baffle most people. Even more difficult to visualize are the mechanisms that under lie our thinking processes.

In our world of objects, the predictions that help us choose behavior normally are not created by tracing the flow of input and output through a chain of mechanisms. Most predictions are not created by a chain of clock like mental mechanisms.

Instead predictions of a behavior’s outcome are based on a rule. For example, in situation "A," behavior "X" causes condition "B." The rule, instead of being based on a mechanism, is based on thinking processes like:

Two models of thinking are emerging. One is rule based. The other is mechanism based.

In rule based Ë experienced information is formed into rules. Then logically manipulated to guide behavior.

In mechanism based Ë experienced information is formed into mechanisms. Then the mechanisms transform real or abstract information to form, among other things, non-experienced conditions from yet untried physical behaviors.

Let me summarize:

1) Models predict what will happen if a behavior is applied to a situation.

2) Predictions can be created by:

    • logical models that use "rules.".
    • process models that use "mechanisms."

3) The Goldberg model uses mechanisms not rules.

For our purpose, to create a temporal learning and thinking model, there are some advantages of using mechanisms and some disadvantages of using rules.

To understand these differences begin with the definition of prediction:

A prediction is ==>> that a second condition will follow the first.

A logical model is a collection of rule based predictions. The rules reflect:

    • direct experience of one condition following another,
    • indirect experience of connected symbols or,
    • logical deduction (logical manipulation of images or symbols.)

In all logical predictions, the first and second condition had physical existence before the existence of the rule. Conditions not in memory can not be part of a rule. A rule-based model can not predict a condition that has not previously existed. It follows that creation of a rule requires hindsight of the conditions contained within it. With deduction, the connection is new, the relation is new, and the prediction is new, however, the composition of the predicted condition was known.

Process models, on the other hand, do not require explicit hindsight of a second condition to predict the condition. Behaviors, never tried in the real world, can be introduced into a process model and the model’s mechanisms can predict a condition that has never previously occurred. That’s how we know if a dog, a raccoon, a pig, or the wind, moves the cheese in the Rube Goldberg cartoon, the cat will be awakened even though one of these forces never moved the cheese.

This difference between a rule based model and a mechanism-based model is critical in our effort to design learning environments for temporal sight. A rule model for temporal learning would require that at least some people had temporal sight. The rules would have had to have been derived from the experiences of people who have gained temporal sight. Since we know that almost no one has temporal sight (at least at the levels I describe) we can not use their learning experiences to derive these rules and to build a rule model. With the option removed, we are left with no other choice than to build a process model that uses mechanisms not rules.

11.3. Changing views of knowledge and process

For engineers to make the jump from rule based to mechanism based model building, they had to change their view of knowledge and process. To create a process model of learning and thinking, we now have to make similar changes.

11.3.1. Expanding our view of knowledge

To get beyond the limitations of a rule model, knowledge must be more than the one to one memory of direct experience or related facts, values, and behaviors transmitted by our culture. The example I use to explain this expanded view of knowledge is taken from an imaginary community that wears brimless hats. For them existing knowledge includes:

"His head is covered by a hat." condition

"Hat shade prevents sun burn." relation

"Always wear a hat." and, behavior

"Not having a sunburned head is good." value

A mechanism model expands existing knowledge. A mechanism varies the size of the hat – increasing or decreasing the size of the hat is equivalent to adding a hat brim. Now, as with the Rube Goldberg model where if we added elements that never existed like the dog, or raccoon, we gain a new results, in this case a mechanism that increases hat size (adding a brim) produces conditions, relations, behaviors, and values that never previously existed.

For example:

    • conditions that have never existed in the past or present are found to be expectations for the future. "His nose is shaded by hat brim."
    • relations that have never existed in the past or present are found to be possible constructions. "the hat brim prevents nose sunburn."
    • behaviors that have never been taken in the past but if taken in the present are believed to modify the expected future. "Always wear a hat with a brim."
    • values (feelings) that:
    • did not result from personal experience, or
    • were not transmitted by existing culture, and
    • did arise from causal manipulation of abstractions.
    • "A not sunburned nose feels better than a burned nose."

Thus the concept of trends in variables (in a world where experience only produced states of variables) creates an additional class of knowledge - mechanism based trend knowledge.

11.3.2. Expanding our view of thinking processes

Our view of thinking processes, like our view of knowledge, also must be changed as we move from a rule-based model to a mechanism-based model. Familiar sensing, manipulating, storing, or retrieving, processes adequate for gathering and manipulating rules must now include processes for:

    • accessing previously invisible parts of existing conditions (for example, "abstract in-process motions")
    • converting existing conditions into previously unknown conditions (transformations of in-process motions into conditions that will exist in the future if no other factors preclude them,)
    • converting intervening behaviors into changes in these predictions of future conditions,
    • creating values that determine desirability of imaged conditions relative to conditions experienced directly. And finally,
    • developing meta processes, for acquiring the thinking processes that facilitate mechanistic access and manipulation of information.

These thinking processes have the form of the Rube Goldberg contraption. Still calling it a contraption is a denigration. The Rube’s pictures of systems were works of art. Even non-mechanical people could see with clarity how movement percolated through the system obtaining a result distant in time and space from the initial action.

Figure 11.3 -10 Rube’s thinking model

A Rube Goldberg version of thinking looks like Figure 11.3 -10.

If a condition exists, it can be the input to a thinking mechanism. The mechanism’s output is a condition that never existed. Since the new and old condition can be connected there can be in memory a new:

    • relation not obtained from direct experience of the objects or symbols in the world. And
    • an expectation (prediction of a condition) also not based on direct experience of the objects or symbols in the world.

Figure 11.3 -20 Rube’s learning to think model

If Rube had a view of how mechanisms were built and this view became part of an individual’s thinking process it would look in schematic form as shown in Figure 11.3 -20. that is a mechanism operates on a condition to make a mechanism.

Figure 11.3 -30 Rube’s combined thinking and learning to think model

If an older version of that mechanism is already in place, the mechanism creates a product that is substituted for the existing mechanism. Notice in Figure 11.3 -30 that the output of the mechanism changes the mechanism that is in a learning process.

11.3.3. Summary

With Rube’s view of content and process, that is with:

    • an understanding of the temporal aspects of information,
    • the kinds of transformations performed by mechanisms, and
    • the a rationale for their connections,

we can build a process model of thinking and learning. We can understand how mechanisms overcome the temporal limitations of rule models.

At a meta level, Rube’s graph of connections among mechanisms may also show how the mechanisms were acquired and connected. This may allow us to see how we developed existing thinking mechanisms that were temporally limited. It may show what changes in curriculum would result in changes in mechanisms and connections that facilitate temporal sight.

11.4. Plan for collecting and integrating components

To build a process model of thinking and learning we need to create descriptions of:

These are not simple tasks even for systems like bridges for which we have descriptions of the:

To help create these descriptions I use existing dynamic, behavior, and learning models. Each of these groups of models has something special to offer:

    • dynamic models give temporal context to our knowledge,
    • behavior models relate temporal knowledge to our actions, and
    • learning models describe acquisition of our temporal knowledge.

Each of these three groups of models contributes variables, mechanisms and pathways useful in creating three process models of temporal thinking and learning. I build a process model from dynamic models in Chapter 12. I build a second process model from behavior models in Chapter 13. And I build a third process model from learning models in Chapter 14.

Since the resulting three process models are three views of the same thinking process it should come as no surprise that they share some common variables and mechanisms. Thankfully the reader will find some redundancy. When ever possible the same examples were intentionally used in all three chapters. The overlap and commonality of variables and mechanisms makes it easier in Chapter 15 to combine the three process models into one process model of thinking and learning capable of describing pathways for the development of temporal sight.

11.5. Reader encouragement

Don’t rush your personal learning process. Reviewing the concluding diagrams in Chapter 15, before understanding the simple mechanisms that reveal the model’s power will leave you with a temporal model of learning and thinking that is mystical and less compelling.

Keep each idea and model at the common sense level. Nothing should seem mystical. There is no magic required to create an understanding. No special engineering, psychological, or educational training is required. (The engineer, psychologist, and educator is at a special disadvantage because he or she is blinded to some aspects of these process models by his or her rule-based expertise.)

The text is written for the non-expert reader, who, without serious bias, has a better chance to do the integration. The text is written so that the diligent reader will be able to understand each small step with common sense.

While only empirical work will prove a target curriculums’ correctness, hypothetical success foretells that the global application of a curriculum that creates temporal sight could create new generations that do not drive themselves toward war, famine, and pollution.

 

Part 2: Existing models and temporal thinking

Chapter 12. Dynamic models & temporal thinking

Part of our world is

physical systems,

that are manipulated by human behaviors,

that are chosen by conscious thinking,

which, is shaped by physical systems.

In this chapter I describe how dynamic models help us understand this part of our world – specifically the temporal aspects of this part. I show that dynamic models form a basis for the thinking and learning process model for which we search.

The dynamic models I studied in engineering were process models of physical systems which, changed over time. And I use these dynamic models to make explicit the:

    • components of process models,
    • assembly of process models, and
    • power of process models to create, what should appear to their creator, as immutable predictions.

It is this power to predict that will allow dynamic process models to describe cognition’s development into temporal sight.

12.1. Defining process models

Humans consciously choose behavior to control physical systems when they can predict what conditions will be produced by each behavior.

Rube Goldberg's contraptions allow us to see how pictures make predictions. Dynamic models show us how process models make them.

12.1.1. From dynamic models

Since process models are a subset of dynamic models, let me first describe dynamic models.

    • Dynamic models make explicit the temporal aspects of information processed by systems.
    • Dynamic models describe:
    • the motion of a system, and
    • the control of a system’s motion.
    • Dynamic models create scenarios for a system’s
    • variables , and
    • connections among its variables.
    • Dynamic models create these scenarios for systems:
    • allowed an unfettered course, and
    • where human behaviors change the
    • variables or
    • connections among variables.
    • Dynamic models describe:
    • physical systems, where variables have mass, and
    • cognitive systems, where variables are abstractions.

Physical and cognitive dynamic models combine into a single model when:

    • the physical system impinges on human senses or
    • human behavior changes the physical system,

Dynamic aspects of physical systems are more easily seen than dynamic aspects of thinking systems. For example:

    • a ball takes time to travel between the catcher and the thrower,
    • wind changes a ball’s trajectory after its thrown,
    • the catcher moves toward the location of both where the ball was thrown and the continuously changing location where the ball will land with the wind blowing on it.

Dynamic aspects of thinking processes on the contrary are all but hidden in abstractions. However we know they exist given that thinking processes:

    • manipulate information over time,
    • change their own structure over time,
    • initiate and terminate manipulations,
    • create predictions for future points in time,
    • create meaning for predictions distributed over time, and
    • compare different streams of predicted benefits.

With half of the combined system derived from partially hidden abstractions, it is a challenge to create a process model that describes how humans interact with, and learn to interact with their physical system.

However difficult, if the process model can be built, it may be able to tell us why:

    • individuals in 1968 didn’t want to wear seat belts, and
    • individuals today still unintentionally behave in ways that make war, famine, and pollution for their great grandchildren.

12.1.2. Terms and operatives

In the car driving system, (the mechanics of the car, the behaviors of the driver, and the thinking that facilitates choice of behaviors) is supported by a huge number of physical relations and social rules. However, they all fit together so intuitively, each driver is almost unaware of this complexity and thus is not overwhelmed by it. On the contrary most of us believe that getting from place to place safely in our car is a very simple exercise.

So it is with process models. As a group of independent ideas the collected structures listed below appear complex. However, they are not confusing if one can make a mental Rube Goldberg picture of them. Then, they fit intuitively together.

- Variables

    • Each variable can adopt different values.
    • Each variable can have only one value at an instant in time.
    • Over time each variable can be continuous or discontinuous.
    • When variables describe physical objects then a time interval is required for a change in value.
    • When variables describe abstractions then a time interval is not required for a change in value.
    • The history of a variable’s values creates a scenario.

- Connections

    • A connection between two variables describes the affect of a change in the first variable on a change in the second.

- Structure

    • A process model is a representation of two or more connected variables.
    • In a process model, the value of each variable controls or is controlled by the value of one or more other variables.
    • If no connection exists between a variable and other variables within the process model it can not be part of the process model.
    • a variable's exclusion from a process model requires that both:
    • the variable affects no variables within the model, and
    • none of the model’s variables affect it.

- Predictions

    • A variable’s value at two points in time creates a scenario.
    • Scenarios in memory form the basis of prediction.
    • Some scenarios are not based on variable sampling, they are instead created by a mechanism that manipulates information
    • When a mechanism connects two variables, the second can not change unless its predecessor changes.
    • With mechanism dependence, if a variable changes, dependent variables are forced to change.
    • A chain of mechanisms that connects variables creates immutable predictions.
    • Sometimes these chains form trees where one variable can manipulate two or more other variables, or two or more variables manipulate one variable.
    • Sometimes variables and connections form loops.
    • Trees and loops form immutable predictions.

These concepts form the core of the process models that I use to describe thinking and learning as well as its development.

(Note: You might want to dog ear the previous page so you can refer back to it like you did for the page with the definition of terms in Chapter 10.)

12.1.3. Extracting and combining elements

Building process models depends on identifying both variables and the mechanisms that connect them together. There are many ways to accomplish this. Below I identify energy flow, mass flow, and information flow as three means for extracting the variables and mechanisms from our universe.

- Mass flow

mass is moved from place to place in physical systems. Since the atoms of material are for the most part not created or destroyed, the atoms can be followed as they migrate from variable to variable in the a physical system. This tracing can become a powerful tool to help build the model.

For example, carbon atoms that start in a crude oil reservoir in the ground have many destinations. For example, drilling waste, consumed by tanker as fuel, lost into the sea as pollution, separated into one of the many products of a refinery, consumed in gasoline transport, evaporated while loading into cars, and converted by gas engines into carbon dioxide

As each carbon atom combines with other atoms to make compounds, The atoms of these compounds become threads in a search for other variables. For example as the gas is burned in car engines, the high temperatures create besides carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and nitric oxides. Each of these has affects on other system variables and facilitates other predictions.

- Energy flow

Similarly, energy can neither be created or destroyed, and thus must exist somewhere in the universe. Tracing energies locations as we traced the carbon atoms to successive locations helps define the variables and connections in process models.

- Information flow

A third way to identify variables and mechanisms of process models is to trace information flows among them.

For example, in the Army information flows are called chain of command. The general makes the plan and tells his majors, who tell their lieutenants who tell their sergeants who tell their men. If the chain of command is broken, it is easy to determine from the army’s communication structure who knows and who doesn’t know. If a lieutenant is killed at the front line, without replacement, everyone knows which sergeants and solders will not receive new orders.

Figure 12.1 -10 Flipped blanket without wife

The broken information path in the flipped over electric blanket example is shown in Figure 12.1 -10. If the wife of the sick husband is not in bed when he turns up his blanket, his blanket will not get warmer or colder, until his wife comes to bed, finds it too warm and turns down her control.

These two examples illuminate a way of working backward and forward from any variable or mechanism. That is, one can ask the questions:

  • "To what mechanism is this information passed?"
  • "From where does this mechanism receive information?"
  • "What causes this variable to change?"
  • "What variables will be caused to change if this variable changes?"

12.2. Predictions from process models

Process models contribute to our understanding of thinking and learning in that they:

    • "make predictions" and
    • "explain how they make them."

These explanations are derived from the process model’s

    • variable components,
    • connection geometry, and
    • system control structure.

12.2.1. Structure of Variables

Variables describe systems. Predictions are the values of variables at times in the future. However, exact numerical values are not the only useful indicator. Simply knowing the trend of a variable can be enough of a prediction to shape behavior. And if this is true then just knowing that a trend is changing can be enough to shape behavior.

In the next two sections I focus on just a small part of the information associated with variables useful in making predictions:

    • variable trends and
    • variable limits.

-Variable trends

As systems get complex and mechanisms between variables get vague, predictions about variables change from how big and when to:

    • "the variable is changing" or
    • "the variable is remaining constant,"

and if changing:

    • "the variable is increasing" or
    • "the variable is decreasing."

The loss of precise mechanisms changes the visual composition of process models. With mechanisms removed we are left with variables (in ovals connected) connected by arrows that show the casual affect of one variable on another.

This simplification, while losing the process model’s ability to predict the exact value of a variable, retains the model’s "trend" predictive capabilities. For the arrow-oval diagram to create a prediction requires only that the arrow indicate the relation between the trend of the variable at the tail of the arrow and the trend of the variable at the head.

An unmarked arrow means the trends of the two variables are in same direction. If the tail variable goes up the head variable goes up. For example

Figure 12.2-10 Arrow implying same trend between variables

Figure 12.2-10 shows the relationship between Bus service (how often the bus goes by) and ridership (the number of people that ride the bus) If the bus service becomes more convenient ridership will increase. The figure shows that if bus service goes down, then bus ridership goes down.

Figure 12.2-20 Arrow implying opposite trend between variables

Conversely in Figure 12.3-20, I show that if the variables at the ends of the arrow trend in opposite directions, that is if the tail goes up the head goes down, or if the tail goes down the head goes up, then the arrow is marked with an "O" for opposite. The figure shows that as a room temperature rises to that required by the thermostat, the furnace output will be less. Also that as the room temperature goes down, as it would if someone left the door open, the furnace would have to put out more heat.

In summary , these process models make predictions without numbers. The model tells the direction of the change in each variable's value relative to changes in another variable.

-Variable limits

A connection in a process model implies that a second variable is forced to change or gets a signal to change when its predecessor changes. However, the dependent variable does not always change.

Let’s assume you are a cherry picker. And you can pick 25 cherries a minute. You are carrying a pail where you put the cherries you picked.

Your model predicts the number of cherries in the pail. At the end of one minute you have 25 cherries. At the end of two minutes you have 50. At the end of three minutes you have 75 cherries etc.

Minutes collecting x 25 cherries/min ==>> cherries in pail

Sounds simple enough until the pail gets full. Then "minutes collecting" does not predict the "cherries in pail." The variable "cherries in pail." has a limit and once the limit is exceeded more minutes does not mean more cherries in pail.

There are cases where variables have idiosyncrasies. These cases sometimes lead to the addition of new variables not included in the original process model, "cherries picked and not in pail" and additional predictions (not previously thought of a future conditions resulting from the original system) cherries dropped.

The presence of these newly discovered future conditions change the decision environment, which is created by the process model without the new variables. Thus the efforts to review undiscovered idiosyncrasies within the process model’s existing variables is itself a powerful process for making predictions.

Identification of variable idiosyncrasy is a large research area I introduce it only to reveal some of the predictive powers of process models. Besides the example above, called "overfilling a sink" listed as 1) below, I describe three others.

1) "elements pushed above a limit" extend additional impetus (exceeding the capacity of a sink)

2) "elements below their minimums" extend the null impetus to down stream elements. (emptying a source)

3) "elements sending out delayed messages" may appear as if they are sending out no message (releasing freon into the atmosphere seems to have no effect until it affects the ozone layer 15 years later)

4) "non linear changes in a variable" (if each generation has four children, the increase in population increases changes with each generation.)

12.2.2. Connection geometry

Some of the predictions created by process models stem from the geometry of the connections among its variables. These shapes include chains, trees, and loops.

- Chains

Consider a process model that describes the gas in a gas tank and the "gas consumed by a running engine. " The model of the two variables appears below:

Figure 12.2 –30 engine running hours and gas in tank

The model follows the general rules outlined previously. For example, the engine can not run without changing the amount of gas in the tank. The tank (assuming it is not at a refueling station) can not change its fuel amount without the engine running.

This two variable dependency can be expanded into a chain of dependencies. For example, assume that the engine drives a tractor and the tractor is plowing a large field. Each row of the field takes a period of engine running time. Now we have three variables in the chain where none can change unless all change.

Figure 12.2-31 rows plowed, engine hours, gas in tank

If you make three rows, the engine must run three time periods and the tank must empty three units of fuel. If you measure the amount of fuel in the tank at the beginning of the day, and know no one adds fuel, then you can measure fuel at the end of the day and predict how many rows have been plowed. Visa Versa if you count how many rows of the field have been plowed you can predict how much gas has been removed from the tank. These predictions, being based on mechanism, are quite reliable.

If the field is big and would take many vehicle tank refills to plow the whole field and there was a fuel storage tank at the field’s edge and the tractor stopped there to refuel, a fourth element in the chain could be added – the fuel in the storage tank.

Figure 12.2 –32 rows plowed engine hours field tank

Predictions of how many rows in the field were plowed, how much the engine ran, and how much gas was added to the tractor’s tank, could be made from how much fuel was left in the storage tank and visa versa.

If the field was so big that many fills of the fuel in the field storage tank would be required to complete all the rows. Then a central farm tank, that holds fuel only for plowing, would periodically make fuel transfers to the field tank. Then the fuel removed from the farm’s central plowing storage tank could predict the number of rows plowed.

This chain of mechanisms describing fuel flow, can be expanded by tracing back through, the fuel distributors tanks, the refiner’s tanks, the transporter’s ship tanks, the oil well pumper’s tanks and finally the crude oil reserves in the ground. The process model can make predictions about each of these from the amount of field plowed.

- Trees

Process models can be more than single chains. They can branch like trees.

Much of the dependence and predictions made possible by the process model were made possible by doing a conservation of mass analysis. That is the atoms that were in the fuel reservoir are the same as the atoms in the oil tanker, and finally the atoms in the fuel tank of the tractor.

Buy following these atoms along their journey we could identify additional variables in our system. Notice that in the above chain we went from fuel consumed to rows plowed.

We could have also done a conservation of mass trace and identified a variable called "carbon dioxide put in the air." The carbon atoms in the fuel tank went somewhere.

Thus our chain can branch. Burning fuel in the tractor has two depend variables – plowed rows and carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere, see Figure 12.2-33.

It is easy to see that the tree shapes that show up in process models also have predictive qualities. Several variables can have their changes be dependent on the change of a single variable.

Figure 12.2-33 tree dependence on process models

For example, identifying the change in any variable in the tree infers that there is known motion in every other variable.

The limitations on the model’s ability to predict in these branches still relate to each connection being a mechanism. The plowed rows exist only if the tractor "caused" the ground to be turned. If the tractor idled in one place, there is no causality. Similarly the chain of variables describing changes in the containers of fuel "predict" each other’s value only if there is a causal (in this case conservation of mass) connection. If it was possible for an atom of carbon to appear and disappear at will, conservation of mass would not hold, causality would be lost, and the chain or tree would not have predictive capabilities.

Summary of chain and tree process models

If:

a person makes a graph of some world variables,

and

it is that person’s best guess of how things are put together,

and

the graph predicts a future condition that does not presently exist but which is abhorrent to the individual

and

the individual has no better prediction than that created by the graph,

and

he acts to change it,

Then:

we can assume that without the graph he would not have seen or appreciated the future effect of existing motions or actions and would not have changed behaviors.

- Loops

In process models, what happens when a down stream variable gets its signal to change, changes, and sends out a signal to an upstream variable? The upstream variable changes. This in turn creates an impetus for the down stream variable, the one that just did the telling, to change again.

Once any variable changes in such a circular "loop" all the variables in the loop and all the variables not in the loop but dependent on changes of variables in the loop continue to change. Thus loops, in process models, predict immutable future changes in variables just as they do in chain or tree configurations.

- Divergent loops

The changes in the values of any two variables in a loop are determined directly by the mechanisms that form the connections. However, the loop geometry, the connections all working together also tell us something about the future states of variables.

With loops the signals

    • keep running once they are started,
    • can change its message between any two points in time.
    • can tell a variable to go up, down, or remain the same.

Given these alternatives in continuing communication,

    • some variables within a loop may diverge away from their initial values, eventually attaining the variables extreme limits.
    • some variables within a loop may converge toward a single value of the variable.

The bus system is a good example of a divergent loop Figure 12.2-34.

Figure 12.2-34 bus system loop

If the bus service is improved, ridership will go up, revenue will go up. With more revenue the bus service can be improved. If follows with better service, ridership will go up, revenue will go up, which means service will go up, which means ridership will go up, etc. This is a divergent loop. A result many people like.

Unfortunately divergent loops have two directions. If ridership falls, then revenue falls and this will cause service to fall... etc. The end of divergence is that service is so poor no one rides the bus. There are no revenues and the buses stop running.

- Convergent" loops

In "convergent" loops " change in a loop’s variable sets off a chain of changes around a loop resulting in the restoration of the variable’s initial value.

For example consider the furnace output in a house and the room temperature in a house.

Figure 12.2-35 convergent loop system

In the convergent loop above, assume the thermostat is set at 72 degrees. When room temperature is below 72 degrees the thermostat tells the furnace to turn on. When the room temperature is 72 degrees the thermostat will tell the furnace to turn off. The outside air temperature will slowly make the room temperature colder and when it goes below 72 degrees the cycle will repeat. In this way the loop is always running but the room temperature variable is held constant at 72 degrees no matter what the outside temperature.

Notice however that as the outside temperature decreases the furnace will have to be on more of the time. As the outside temperature rises as it does in summer the furnace will be on none at all to maintain the room at or above 72-degree temperature.

- Determining divergent from convergent loops

We have discussed convergent and divergent loops before when we used the two control electric blanket to show how people failed to predict what the blanket would do under everyday circumstances. The figures from that section are repeated here. The same six variables predict comfort or chaos depending on the order they passed information to one another.

While not calling them process models in previous sections I showed how the six variables connected together in two three variable loops maintained two independent comfortable blanket temperatures for two people under a wide range of room temperatures and individual feelings of chill. I also showed the six variables connected together in a single loop predicted discomfort for both parties.

In this section I will use those diagrams to describe how the loop diagrams, could predict whether a loop is divergent or convergent. I will show a mechanism for determining whether:

    • variables stay close to desired values or
    • variables migrate continuously away from initial values.

My purpose is not to teach you how to model electric blankets but to show how powerful very simple process model graphs are in making predictions about future conditions. And to help you realize that in the absence of these strong predictions, expectations and behaviors will be different.

The correctly operating two-control electric blanket was shown in Chapter 3 Figure 3.2-50. That figure is the same as Figure 12.2-50 shown below. In Chapter 3, I told a story about how the structure relating the variables in a system determine its behavior. Here, I will provide a process model graph tool that will show how the stability or instability of any loop of variables can be determined. In this way I will be able to show in more detail how process models make immutable predictions.

Figure 12.2-50 electric blanket feedback loops

Electric blankets maintain temperature under the blanket according to the setting on the dial. If the air is very cold, the blanket temperature is maintained at the set temperature using lots of electrical energy. When air temperature is close to the set temperature, little electric power is fed to the blanket.

The person under the blanket did not request more energy on cold nights and less energy on hot nights. They requested a fixed temperature under the blanket. It was the blanket’s controller that requested the energy to maintain that temperature.

The controller acts like thermostat on the wall of your house. If the room temperature is too warm it turns the furnace off and if it is too cold it turns the furnace on.

The set temperature of the furnace thermostat can be changed. For example, from a set temperature of 55 degrees at night to 65 degree set temperature during the daytime. Whatever the set temperature is that is the temperature at which the room is maintained.

Similarly, if the blanket "set" temperature is not what the individual wants he or she dials in a new set temperature, higher or lower for the blanket to maintain.

We can model the blanket with just three variables:

    • the set temperature,
    • the temperature of the blanket. and
    • the desired temperature of sleeper.

These three temperatures communicate-with one another – just as the gasoline atoms moved from one container to the other.

The blanket can be graphed as in the figure below.

Figure 12.2-52 process model graph of electric blanket.

In the loop if the set temperature goes up, the blanket temperature goes up. Conversely if the set temperature goes down the blanket temperature goes down. This mechanism is labeled the "S" for same, because either:

    • an increase in the first variable requires an increase in the second, or
    • a decrease in the first requires a decrease in the second.

Also notice that the sleeper under the blanket either feels an increase in blanket temperature or feels a decrease if the blanket temperature decreases. So connect also is marked with an "S" for same.

The third connection is between what the sleeper feels and the set temperature. If the sleeper feels her temperature is increasing she decreases the set temperature down. If the sleeper feels her temperature decreasing she increases the set temperature. Thus a change in the first variable obtains an "opposite" change in the second variable. Thus the connection between them is marked with an "O."

The net result of these three interactions among variables is that the system is rather well behaved. After the individual raises and lowers the set temperature several times, she finds the temperature she likes and then leaves the set temperature untouched for long periods of time.

This loop, with one opposite control link (marked "O"), displays a tendency to center one of its variables about a fixed value like the set temperature.

To generalize,

If:

any loop,

containing any number of variables and connections, and

containing an odd number such as 1,3,5.... of "opposite connections"

Then:

the loop will have a convergence property for some of the variables.

If :

Any loop of any number of variables

Contains an even number of opposite labeled connections such as 0,2,4,6..

Then:

Some of the loops variables will continue their changes overtime toward extreme values.

- Loop mechanics of divergent predictions

You will remember that if the blanket was turned over, so that her "set temperature" controlled his half of the bed and his "set temperature" controlled her half of the bed the system became very badly behaved.

By flipping over the blanket it becomes clear that the two loops of three connected variables become one loop of six connected variables, Figures 12.2-65.

Figure 12.2 – 65 Flipped dual control blanket

It is easy to predict that the six-loop system would not maintain comfortable temperatures for either person using simple inspection. However if there were hundreds of variables this task becomes difficult.

Is there a simple structural difference between the six variable and the two three variable systems? Is there away to tell if a loop will have the nice behavior or the deviant behavior.

From inspection we can see the six variable loop has two opposite links in the same loop instead of one each in the two loops. The two opposite links cancel each other out, and the loop operates like the unstable bus system model. That is as if it had an even number of opposite links the loop.

If we generalize what we have learned any process model with an even number of opposite links, that is 0, 2, 4, 6, etc. will be a system predictably susceptible to all of its variables going to their extremes. That is it will be the same as having all same links. While any loop with an odd number of opposite links 1,3,5,... will predictably maintain some variables in the loop near expected values.

(Note: Connection geometry makes strong predictions. This type of prediction is most important when long time periods between action and outcome make learning by experience too weak to make strong predictions and thus adequately influence behavior which would avoid bad future conditions.)

12.2.3. System control

Feedback Ë The return of a portion of the output of a process or system to the input, especially to maintain performance or to control a system or process.

American Heritage Dictionary

Feed forward Ë No definition

American Heritage Dictionary

system control Ë the dependence of variable change on changes in other variables in a system.

Most of us are s