On the Titanic, many difficult problems were solved correctly. The ballrooms were elegant. The soufflé's were served hot. And passenger bragging rights were top notch. However, the most important problem was not addressed — sinking.

What if our governments, Kiwanis clubs, and philanthropists solve many problems, but not the most important one — civilization collapse.

Collapse is caused by too many people, declining earth services, and rising inequity. Collapse comes racing out of nowhere driven by the feedback loop — decreasing energy produces food scarcity. Scarcity produces social conflict? And conflict produces more scarcity.

If people spent all their effort solving other problems and let collapse happen it would be a Titanic mistake. Maybe we should be focusing on contracting human footprint faster than earth's services are expected to contract. Maybe we should limit inequity below levels that drive social conflict.

By my calculations, contracting our footprint to 1/150th this century solves these problems. Why this large contraction? Why this short timetable? First rising inequity will flood our neighborhoods with social conflict. Second, we are supporting 7 billion people on the coal, oil, natural gas, and uranium that won’t be delivered in 2100.

Yes, there will still be reserves of these resources buried in the ground next century, however, the energy to extract them will be more than the energy they will deliver.

Won’t renewable energy from solar and wind replace these loses? No! Because these sources, after using their own energy to keep themselves on-line, don’t produce enough "net energy" to run the civilization we want.

Without fossil, uranium, solar, and wind sources, civilization’s 22nd century's energy budget will depend on the earth's in-place hydro electric dams. By my calculations they produce only enough energy to support 50 million people. People may be able to live developed world life styles. But they won't be driving cars or flying in airplanes. And they won't be living all over the earth. Instead they will be living in 3 efficiently designed city states.

Now how do we get from here to there when the current solutions are not strong enough. For example, the  "Too-many-people problem" addressed by fewer babies (through improving woman’s rights, access to health care, education, and the demographic transition) and the "too-few-resources problem, addressed by technologically doing more with less, are like improving hot water delivery to the Titanic's third class showers. These solutions, successfully implemented, don't prevent collapse.

While reducing population to 50 million this century appears near impossible, a view of children and grandchildren struggling with civilization collapse should drive us to discover the path required for transition.

The path under consideration at SKIL, "Change the Course," results from 3 billion people:
      1) seeing the injuries produced by humankind’s present course.
      2) visualizing the design of a non collapsing civilization on earth.
      3) understanding which behaviors will transition the existing
            civilization to this new one.
      4) knowing which laws will have to be implemented at the
            institutional level to obtain these behaviors, and
      5) voting to cause institutions to implement these laws.

Initial descriptions of how to achieve the above five steps can be found in the video's below. More detailed work can be found at www.skil.org. However, here is a peek at the new laws (item 4) that would be required to make the transition from -- the present course toward collapse to a peaceful, sustainable civilization.
      1) civil control over annual number of births per year.
      2) managing social conflict though limitations in separation
            between the rich and poor.
      3) assigning equal ownership of the earth’s services to the next 100 generations.

We and our children are passengers on our Titanic like earth, and we all need to intellectually and financially support projects that address civilization collapse. SKIL needs your financial assistance to create the 3 billion person constituency. ---