Rapid Population Decline or Civilization Collapse

Introduction: (Am I crazy or Are You Crazy) (text)

1.0 Views of the Human Predicament (text)

                  1.1 With No increases in People or Consumption we are in deep trouble (text)

                                    1.1.1 Population Overshoot by a factor of 100 (SN67)  (movie)

                                    1.1.2 How Many People Will You Kill? (SN47)

                  1.2 With Expected Increases we are in worse trouble

                                    1.2.1 Footprint Versus Freedom (SN2)

                                    1.2.2 Is Population Down the Opposite of Population Up? (SN21)

                                    1.2.3 Sustainability: Doubles, Halves and Footprint (SN8)

                                    1.2.4 Temporal Social Fundamentals (SN10 and SN15)

                                    1.2.5 Social Vectors and Individual Behavior (SN7)

                                    1.2.6 Increasing terrorism (SN9)

                                    1.2.7 Do You Like To Give Flowers? (SN17)

                                    1.2.8 The Overlap Trend Controls the Conflict Trend (SN22)

                                    1.2.9 Increasing longevity increases population (text)mod  01/14/11

                  1.3 Hidden Dynamics of our unfolding future (our temporal blindness) (text)

                                    1.3.1 Examples of cognitive dysfunction (temporal blindness)

                                             Native Americans did not see their destination (SN12)

                                             Viewing the present from the future (SN5)

                                    1.3.2 The human experiment in three trends (island world)

                                    1.3.3 Distracted by Immediate Problems (putting your arm out) (NW/video)

                                    1.3.4 What you see is not what you get --- Nonlinear unfolding --

                                                      Physical systems

                                                                        (NW/video stopping distance vs. stopping force)

                                                      Biological systems)

                                                                        (NW in video) Growth within limits (capped personal consumption)

                                                      Human predicament

                                                                        (NW/video) Growth within limits (unlimited personal consumption

                                    1.3.5 Dropping production (past the peaks the extra twist)

                  1.4 Net Predicament requiring solving

                                    1.4.1 A mechanism of civilization collapse (SN31)

                                    1.4.2 Which Information Describes the Human Predicament? (SN50)

                                    1.4.3 Does Your Math Calculate the Future Clearly? (SN55)

                                    1.4.4 HumankindÕs future contains Civilization Collapse

                                             Social conflict trips civilization collapse (fb loops) (SN66)

                                             Beginning of collapse -- Time blindness topples trade towers (ShtArt-1)

                                             The End -- Your Child As a Somali War Orphan – (SN69 movie script)

                                    1.5 Summary HumankindÕs predicament /options  (text)

2.0  Footprint reductions prevent Civilization Collapse – Little else will(text a) (text b)

                  2.1 Actions that wonÕt reduce footprint

                                    2.1.1 Stopping growth

                                    2.1.2 the rich living smaller

                                    2.1.3 Increasing productivity (SN56)

                                    2.1.4 Ameliorating conflict

                                             Peacekeeps no plan for peace  (SN1)

                       Managing conflict -- from dilemma to solution (SN33)

                                    2.1.5 Redistribution of wealth

                  2.2 Feedback driven problem solving (SN19)

                  2.3 Cognitive evolution

                      2.3.1 Cognitive Evolution and the Human Predicament (SN13)

                                    2.3.2 Nurture can change our course  (ShArt -2)

3.0 RPD Reduces Human Footprint -- better than anything else (text)

                  3.1 Demographics – The 500 Pound Gorilla (SN4)

                  3.2 Thinking About the Unthinkable (SN20)

                  3.3 For Peace – RPD Now (SN28)

                  3.4 What Is Not Too Little Too Late? (SN52)

                  3.5 Why Do We Need RPD (SN62)

                  3.6 The Alpert Alternative (OCPF) (The Solution) (SN26)

                  3.7 One Child Per Family (OCPF) or Genocide (SN40)

                  3.8 Low birthrate RPD

                                    3.8.1 How Fast Can OCPF Work? (SN63)

                                    3.8.2 Birthrates Below OCPF (SN64)

                                    3.8.3 1,000,000 births-per-year lottery (NW)

                  3.9 Humankind's Viability Is Preceded by Rapid Population Decline (SN41 part a)

4.0 Implementing Rapid Population Decline (3 behavioral routes) (text)

                  4.1 Universal upgrades in the individualÕs cognitive process

                                    4.1.1 Nurture can change our course (short article)

                                    4.1.2 Who Controls Our Future (SN18)

                                    4.1.3 You Have To Pay for Peace (SN6)

                                    4.1.4 trends determine the wellbeing of the human experiment (text)

                                    4.1.5 Drivers of behavior produce opposite trends (NW)

                                                      genetics and culture drive us toward the darkness

                                                      forethought drives us toward the light

                  4.2 Institutional policy against its constituency (autocracy or dysfunctional democracy)

                                    4.2.1 Six billion against Tony Blair (SN3)

                                    4.2.2 No Plan for Graceful Survival (SN11) (SN14)

                  4.3 Institutional policy driven by a majority constituency

                                    4.3.1 National Problem Referendum (SN16)

                                    4.3.2 Philosophy of RPD behavior change

                                             Ethical Coercion and OCPF Implementation (SN45)

                                              Will Having a Second Child Become Taboo? (SN44)

                                             Finding and implementing course-changing Behavior Change (SN48)

                                    4.3.3 Democratic Coercion of RPD Behavior

                                             Belief Consensus Makes RPD Possible (SN42)

                                             Implementing RPD with a Vote (SN59)

                                             Morality and RPD Laws (SN58)

                                             Forming a Constituency (SN53)

                                             RPD is Not an Impossible Dream (SN57)

5.0  The future: Facing and Resolving the human predicament (text)

                  5.1 Summary of essays (text)

                                    5.1.1 ÒHow things workÓ image of the human predicament (text)

                                             Social Conflict causes the crash of our civilization (text)

                                                                        Conflict death spiral collapses civilization
                                                                        Losers of wellbeing cause conflict
                                                                        Stratification causes losers of wellbeing
                                                                        Scarcity causes stratification of footprint
                                                                        Relationships among Physical variables cause scarcity
                                                                        Consumption rates above renewable
                                                                        Consumption of exhaustible resources
                                                                        Narrowing the eco niche

                                             unfolding (text)

                                                                        Invisible before the crash
                                                                        Unmanageable during the crash
                                                                        Not escapable dark age after the crash

                                    5.1.2 Solutions that wonÕt produce a good future (text)

                                                      Ending social injustice

                                                                        womenÕs rights,
                                                                        wars of social status
                                                                        access to birth control,
                                                                        universal democracy,

                                                      shielding from nature will not resolve the human predicament

                                                                        failed harvest

                                                      Stopping growth will not resolve the human predicament.

                                                                        True increasing footprint makes crash sooner
                                                                        But the crash would happen with no growth in human footprint

                                    5.1.3 Intergenerational tends measure Òwhat we want?Ó(text)

                                                      sinking into darkness

                                                      ever improving wellbeing

                                    5.1.4 Drivers of behavior produce opposite intergenerational trends (text)

                                                      genetics and culture produce a decaying trend

                                                      forethought produces an improving trend

                                    5.1.5 Human experiment with positive intergenerational trends (text)

                  5.2 A Civilization that delivers what we want (text) (remainders)

                                    5.2.1 ever increasing intergenerational trend

                                    5.2.2 design 

                                            Physical parameters.

                                                                     The size

                                                                     The location


                                            Social parameters

                                   5.2.3 conflating the present civilization in to

                                                      a physical sustainable one

                                                      a socially sustainable one                                                              

                  5.3 Moving normal minds creates this civilization

                     5.3.1 The Path forward (SN61)

                                    5.3.2 Implementing RPD (SN41) part b


Appendix: Videos and Seminars (DVD)

                  The Human Predicament and What to Do About It    click to see outline

                  Overpopulation Means Civilization Collapse       click to see outline

                  Your child as a Somali war orphan (Available not publicly posted)

                  Human Predicament -- better commonsense required          click to see outline

                  The nonlinearity of the elephant problem   click to see outline

                  Vancover SKIL Talk  Underestimating the human predicment  video not completed


(Contents omitted notes 43, 46SD, 49, 60 New years, 67 100 mill text